Bayesian Exploration Networks

Bayesian reinforcement learning (RL) offers a principled and elegant approach for sequential decision making under uncertainty. Most notably, Bayesian agents do not face an exploration/exploitation dilemma, a major pathology of frequentist methods. A key challenge for Bayesian RL is the computational complexity of learning Bayes-optimal policies, which is only tractable in toy domains. In this paper we propose a novel model-free approach to address this challenge. Rather than modelling uncertainty in high-dimensional state transition distributions as model-based approaches do, we model uncertainty in a one-dimensional Bellman operator. Our theoretical analysis reveals that existing model-free approaches either do not propagate epistemic uncertainty through the MDP or optimise over a set of contextual policies instead of all history-conditioned policies. Both approximations yield policies that can be arbitrarily Bayes-suboptimal. To overcome these issues, we introduce the Bayesian exploration network (BEN) which uses normalising flows to model both the aleatoric uncertainty (via density estimation) and epistemic uncertainty (via variational inference) in the Bellman operator. In the limit of complete optimisation, BEN learns true Bayes-optimal policies, but like in variational expectation-maximisation, partial optimisation renders our approach tractable. Empirical results demonstrate that BEN can learn true Bayes-optimal policies in tasks where existing model-free approaches fail

Perfectly Secure Steganography Using Minimum Entropy Coupling

Steganography is the practice of encoding secret information into innocuous content in such a manner that an adversarial third party would not realize that there is hidden meaning. While this problem has classically been studied in security literature, recent advances in generative models have led to a shared interest among security and machine learning researchers in developing scalable steganography techniques. In this work, we show that a steganography procedure is perfectly secure under Cachin (1998)'s information-theoretic model of steganography if and only if it is induced by a coupling. Furthermore, we show that, among perfectly secure procedures, a procedure maximizes information throughput if and only if it is induced by a minimum entropy coupling. These insights yield what are, to the best of our knowledge, the first steganography algorithms to achieve perfect security guarantees for arbitrary covertext distributions. To provide empirical validation, we compare a minimum entropy coupling-based approach to three modern baselines -- arithmetic coding, Meteor, and adaptive dynamic grouping -- using GPT-2, WaveRNN, and Image Transformer as communication channels. We find that the minimum entropy coupling-based approach achieves superior encoding efficiency, despite its stronger security constraints. In aggregate, these results suggest that it may be natural to view information-theoretic steganography through the lens of minimum entropy coupling

Monotonic Value Function Factorisation for Deep Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

In many real-world settings, a team of agents must coordinate its behaviour while acting in a decentralised fashion. At the same time, it is often possible to train the agents in a centralised fashion where global state information is available and communication constraints are lifted. Learning joint action-values conditioned on extra state information is an attractive way to exploit centralised learning, but the best strategy for then extracting decentralised policies is unclear. Our solution is QMIX, a novel value-based method that can train decentralised policies in a centralised end-to-end fashion. QMIX employs a mixing network that estimates joint action-values as a monotonic combination of per-agent values. We structurally enforce that the joint-action value is monotonic in the per-agent values, through the use of non-negative weights in the mixing network, which guarantees consistency between the centralised and decentralised policies. To evaluate the performance of QMIX, we propose the StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge (SMAC) as a new benchmark for deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. We evaluate QMIX on a challenging set of SMAC scenarios and show that it significantly outperforms existing multi-agent reinforcement learning methods.Comment: Extended version of the ICML 2018 conference paper (arXiv:1803.11485

Revealing Robust Oil and Gas Company Macro-Strategies using Deep Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

The energy transition potentially poses an existential risk for major international oil companies (IOCs) if they fail to adapt to low-carbon business models. Projections of energy futures, however, are met with diverging assumptions on its scale and pace, causing disagreement among IOC decision-makers and their stakeholders over what the business model of an incumbent fossil fuel company should be. In this work, we used deep multi-agent reinforcement learning to solve an energy systems wargame wherein players simulate IOC decision-making, including hydrocarbon and low-carbon investments decisions, dividend policies, and capital structure measures, through an uncertain energy transition to explore critical and non-linear governance questions, from leveraged transitions to reserve replacements. Adversarial play facilitated by state-of-the-art algorithms revealed decision-making strategies robust to energy transition uncertainty and against multiple IOCs. In all games, robust strategies emerged in the form of low-carbon business models as a result of early transition-oriented movement. IOCs adopting such strategies outperformed business-as-usual and delayed transition strategies regardless of hydrocarbon demand projections. In addition to maximizing value, these strategies benefit greater society by contributing substantial amounts of capital necessary to accelerate the global low-carbon energy transition. Our findings point towards the need for lenders and investors to effectively mobilize transition-oriented finance and engage with IOCs to ensure responsible reallocation of capital towards low-carbon business models that would enable the emergence of fossil fuel incumbents as future low-carbon leaders

QMIX: Monotonic Value Function Factorisation for Deep Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

In many real-world settings, a team of agents must coordinate their behaviour while acting in a decentralised way. At the same time, it is often possible to train the agents in a centralised fashion in a simulated or laboratory setting, where global state information is available and communication constraints are lifted. Learning joint action-values conditioned on extra state information is an attractive way to exploit centralised learning, but the best strategy for then extracting decentralised policies is unclear. Our solution is QMIX, a novel value-based method that can train decentralised policies in a centralised end-to-end fashion. QMIX employs a network that estimates joint action-values as a complex non-linear combination of per-agent values that condition only on local observations. We structurally enforce that the joint-action value is monotonic in the per-agent values, which allows tractable maximisation of the joint action-value in off-policy learning, and guarantees consistency between the centralised and decentralised policies. We evaluate QMIX on a challenging set of StarCraft II micromanagement tasks, and show that QMIX significantly outperforms existing value-based multi-agent reinforcement learning methods.Comment: Camera-ready version, International Conference of Machine Learning 201

Randomized Entity-wise Factorization for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Multi-agent settings in the real world often involve tasks with varying types and quantities of agents and non-agent entities; however, common patterns of behavior often emerge among these agents/entities. Our method aims to leverage these commonalities by asking the question: ``What is the expected utility of each agent when only considering a randomly selected sub-group of its observed entities?'' By posing this counterfactual question, we can recognize state-action trajectories within sub-groups of entities that we may have encountered in another task and use what we learned in that task to inform our prediction in the current one. We then reconstruct a prediction of the full returns as a combination of factors considering these disjoint groups of entities and train this ``randomly factorized" value function as an auxiliary objective for value-based multi-agent reinforcement learning. By doing so, our model can recognize and leverage similarities across tasks to improve learning efficiency in a multi-task setting. Our approach, Randomized Entity-wise Factorization for Imagined Learning (REFIL), outperforms all strong baselines by a significant margin in challenging multi-task StarCraft micromanagement settings.Comment: ICML 2021 Camera Read